Dreamliner, A380: Headaches
(CNN) -- Could it get any worse for Boeing? Its entire fleet of 787 Dreamliners - the most technologically advanced airliner in the world - has been grounded over the risk of a battery catching fire in flight. That followed a series of incidents in the last few weeks affecting high-profile early customers of its ground-breaking widebody - Japanese airlines ANA and JAL, United Airlines and Qatar Airways.
After just over a year in
service, and with a backlog of around 800 orders, the Dreamliner
programme -- already delayed almost three years before it began flying
passengers in late 2011 -- is again in stasis. Carriers forced to
withdraw their Dreamliners from service will demand recompense, while
others due to take delivery in the next few months will be frantically
making alternative plans.
Q&A: Dreamliner woes explained
With Boeing vowing to
throw all its engineering resources at solving the problem over the next
few weeks, it will mean other important projects being sidelined. And
while a production line geared to turning out dozens of airliners a year
cannot be simply be switched off, executives will be wondering whether
it makes sense to continue producing aircraft that are currently
grounded around the world.
Yet, believe it or not,
Boeing bosses may be breathing a sigh of relief that things have turned
out as well as they have. The U.S. company's share price has held up,
and while the unprecedented grounding of its entire fleet of 50
Dreamliners -- the first time an in-service type has been taken out of
action since the late 1970s -- is damaging to Boeing's image and
finances, it may not be catastrophic.
Much depends on what the
investigators find. The best scenario for Boeing is that the problem --
centered on two powerful lithium-ion polymer batteries -- is isolated.
If regulators are convinced that a fix of the way the batteries are
built or installed is sufficient -- and that measures are in place to
minimize any risks from an overheated battery -- the 787 could be back
in service within weeks.
The battery that grounded Boeing
A much worse case is that
the malaise spreads to the entire electrical architecture of the
Dreamliner, forcing a back-to-the-drawing-board rethink of Boeing's
design philosophy. This might take the aircraft out of service for a
year or more, and would bring the airframer close to financial meltdown
as it battled with a crisis much worse than the delay it experienced
getting the 787 to certification.
This, however, is
extremely unlikely. While Boeing took a gamble in creating an aircraft
so dependent on electrical systems and composite aerostructures, it has
already gone through the lengthy and painful process of convincing
regulators the Dreamliner is safe. That the authorities signed off on an
aircraft with such a fundamental design flaw is close to inconceivable.
As for the other
incidents that have beset the type over the past few months -- a fan
shaft failure on an engine, an oil leak, a windshield crack -- all can
safely be put down to teething problems. Most new aircraft experience
issues of this sort, an inevitable consequence of a test program
becoming a production aircraft and the sheer complexity of modern
airliner design.
7 elements that make the Dreamliner special
The A380, the superjumbo
from Boeing's arch-rival Airbus, has had its own travails, both
pre-certification, when the whole wiring infrastructure was called into
question, and after service-entry when cracks were discovered in wing
ribs. It would be astonishing if the 787's closest competitor, the
Airbus A350 XWB, due to go into service next year, does not suffer its
own bedding-in challenges.
And, indeed, while you
might imagine that executives in the French city of Toulouse, where
Airbus is based, are relishing their opponent's travails, that is almost
certainly not the case. In an industry rightly obsessed with safety, it
is in nobody's interest to imply -- even subtly -- that another's
product comes with any risk to passengers. Speed, economy, style, range,
capacity: all may be product differentiators. But never, never safety.
Besides, Airbus too has
staked its reputation on lithium-ion technology. The A350, like the 787,
will use these advanced batteries to power systems such as its
auxilliary power unit. As so often in this duopolistic industry, one
manufacturer's technological step-change is followed by its rival.
Airbus remains convinced that its lithium-ion battery architecture will
deliver operational economies.
The grounding of the 787
fleet illustrates not the flaws in Boeing's industrial culture -- a
rush to bring the airliner to market, a degree of over-innovation or a
desire to please shareholders by outsourcing too much design and
production -- but the rigor of a regulatory regime with a zero tolerance
of any mote of imperfection. And, for anyone who flies, that is good to
know.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Murdo Morrison
.http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/18/opinion/dreamliner-murdo-analysis/index.html?hpt=ibu_c1
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