It would likely send the country back into recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and some 3.4 million jobs would be lost. And ultimately, it could hurt your physical and emotional health.
That's because the part
of the government that handles health-related programs -- Medicare,
medical research, food safety inspectors -- all would be automatically cut starting January 2
if there is no agreement on the Budget Control Act. If not amended in
time, the move would abruptly remove $1.2 trillion from the federal
budget.
The BCA essentially
forces Congress and the president to reach a budget agreement before the
end of the year. If they do not and they do not amend the BCA, the
Office of Management and Budget estimates each government division would
see about an 8.2% budget cut. Medicare would face a 2% cut.
Many, including health care economist Ken Thorpe, are anxious to see that scenario avoided.
"I hope they will reach
agreement quickly and do it in a thoughtful way," said Thorpe, a
professor of health policy and management at Emory University. "Then
next year we can really work on these important structural issues to
slow growth in these programs, rather than these across-the-board cuts
that would arbitrarily make cuts. It's not the smartest way to do it."
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Ellie Dehoney, vice president of public policy and programs for Research!America,
said her group has been hard at work visiting as many members of
Congress as possible to stop across-the-board cuts. Her nonprofit is
particularly concerned about cuts in medical research.
"Across-the-board cuts
would put so many vital medical research programs at risk," Dehoney
said. Her organization brought a handful of Parkinson's patients to meet
with congressional officials. The patients told the representatives how
medical advances made through research funded by the National Institutes of Health gave them hope for a cure for their Parkinson's and how much more research was necessary.
"Many we met with were
clearly moved by their stories," Dehoney said. "We have seen bipartisan
support for medical research funding overall, but in a few offices we
still heard about the need for more 'shared sacrifice.' That's why we
are still working with such urgency."
The individual
departments that will see their budgets cut aren't commenting on
specifics. But clearly something would have to give if these departments
have less with which to work.
"I don't think there is a
lot of cushioning in these program's budgets to just move money around
to cover all the demand for these services," said Ted Marmor,
professor emeritus of public policy and management at Yale. "It is a
real problem when you already have this serious buildup of pressure on
state budgets and family budgets with the recession. A one-time sharp
drop in the budget would be devastating for a lot of people who depend
on these programs."
That means there would
be a cut in health services, although it's unclear which specific
services would be cut; agencies referred questions back to the OMB and
its report.
What is known is the cuts would happen quickly, since under the law most budgets have to be cut in the first year of the act.
"You wouldn't
necessarily see the impact right at first, but agencies like the CDC
will have to prioritize. Something will have to give, so you'd see a lab
close here and a monitoring program end here, so down the road they
won't able to monitor, say, a disease outbreak nearly as well as they
can now," said Indivar Dutta-Gupta, who works with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
"The problem is, we
already are seeing historic low spending on these types of programs, and
even if the Congress and the president do reach an agreement and stop
sequestration, the big worry is there may be even bigger cuts to these
programs in the compromises they make."
If the country does go
over the fiscal cliff and an agreement cannot be reached, here are
general 10 ways it would hurt programs the government provides to help
keep you and others healthy. The following budget estimates come from
the latest OMB analysis:
Medicare
Some 50 million people rely on Medicare
to cover their health care costs. The federal health insurance program,
which is available to all people 65 and older and people with permanent
disabilities, has seen a huge increase in people needing its help.
Fewer companies offer retiree health benefits (down to only 25% of the
population, according to the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation).
Automatically, 2% would
be cut from this program's budget. While this is less than the general
8.2% across-the-board cuts for other federal programs, it would amount
to a budget reduction of around $11 billion. That would mean payments to
doctors, hospitals, long-term care facilities and nursing homes could
be reduced significantly.
Health care providers
already complain that the Medicare reimbursement rate is too low.
Ultimately, those facilities could stop taking Medicare patients.
"Or there would be a cost shift," said Julie Barnes,
director of health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. "That means,
ultimately, they might have to charge private patients more. What else
can they do? They've got to meet their expenses."
Food safety
The number of foods
recalled because they were bad or dangerous hit one of the highest
levels in four years in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the ExpertRECALL Index.
Listeria, botulism, E.
coli, Salmonella -- deadly problems for the food supply -- have all been
caught by government food inspectors. Yet even with those inspections,
tens of millions of people get sick every year and more than 3,000
people die each year from food poisoning, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
An 8.2% cut would slash
the budget for plant and animal health inspections by $71 million. The
budget for the Food Safety and Inspection Service agency would lose more
than a billion dollars from its budget. An additional $3 million would
have to come out of the budget for inspectors who monitor the safety of
our grain supply and stockyards. That could mean fewer inspectors -- and
fewer inspections, which ultimately could mean a food supply that isn't
as safe as it is now.
CDC
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's
work touches many health aspects of daily life. Its nurses and doctors,
epidemiologists and technologists work to prevent the spread of
food-borne illnesses, to stop the spread of the flu and monitor disease
outbreaks, to reduce the number of hospital-acquired illnesses, to
increase immunizations and to create tools to help communities protect
public health, among many other health-related efforts. It would lose
more than $464 million from its overall budget.
NIH
Ultimately, this cut would impact academic labs and research institutions in every single state. The National Institutes of Health
funds a wide variety of medical research. It spends millions to help
scientists discover the root causes and cures for childhood diseases,
cancer, autism, diabetes, lupus and many other illnesses.
Spending on biomedical
and health research and development was already lower than it has been
in years, according to Research!America. Cuts now could have a severe,
long-term impact on research, which could lead to fewer cures and
therapies to fight common diseases. This department would lose more than
$2.5 billion from its budget.
Food for lower-income families
The Women Infant and
Children Supplemental Nutrition Program, known as WIC, helps feed
families who are considered a nutritional risk because they can't afford
to buy food. The program also teaches people about nutrition and provides referrals for health services.
Some 16.4% of the U.S. population is considered "food insecure," according to FeedingAmerica.org. That's more than 48 million people.
About $543 million would be taken out of this program's budget.
Separately, child
nutrition programs would be cut by $4 million. Commodity Assistance
would lose $5 million. Other nutrition programs would lose $11 million.
And the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance program would lose $8 million.
Maternal, Infant and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program
This is a home visiting program
that helps pregnant women or women with children younger than 5 who may
need additional help with maternal and child health issues. It also
works to prevent abuse, neglect or child injuries because of an unsafe
environment in the neighborhood or home.
Studies show this
program reduces crime and incidents of domestic violence. It also
increases a family's economic self-sufficiency. This program would see a
$30 million reduction in its budget.
Office of Lead Hazard Control and Healthy Homes
Children in at least 4 million households are still being exposed to the dangers of lead, according to the CDC.
Lead poisoning, which disproportionately hurts children, can curtail
nervous system development, lead to behavioral disorders and cause
headaches, anemia, seizures and even death.
The Office of Healthy Homes and Lead Hazard Control
is a federal agency established to eliminate lead-based paint hazards
in private homes and low-income housing. The Healthy Homes program also
helps prevent disease and injuries that result from housing-related
hazards such as radon, poor indoor air quality and even poor lighting
that can lead to falls.
The CDC
estimates more than 11,000 people die each year from preventable
unintentional injuries, including falls, fires and poisonings in unsafe
homes. This program would lose $10 million.
Department of Homeland Security, Office of Health Affairs
The Office of Health Affairs in the Department of Homeland Security
is something Americans want to be fully operational if terrorists
attack the country using chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear
weapons. It serves as the department's authority for all medical and
health issues. The office also provides experts to the department's
leadership, builds national plans in case of terrorist attacks, helps
first responders and protects the department itself from health threats.
It would lose $14 million from its budget.
Gallaudet University
The leading
undergraduate liberal arts education program for the deaf and hard of
hearing is based in Washington. It has an international reputation for
its education programs and for the kind of research it does related to
deaf people. With an 8.2% budget cut, the college's funds would be
reduced by $10 million.
"We are monitoring the
situation closely and keeping the campus community informed as the
situation develops," said Fred Weiner, interim assistant vice president
for Administration and Finance at Gallaudet, in a statement sent to CNN.
Social Security
Since the start of the
recession, there has been a marked increase in the need for federal
disability insurance as provided by Social Security. According to the last available census data, more than 8 million people are considered too disabled to work and receive this benefit from the government.
Automatic cuts would
dramatically reduce these services. The federal disability insurance
budget alone would be cut $241 million for discretionary spending.
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